MTN hikes medium term guidance as H1 performance improves
JSE-listed MTN Group on Monday posted triple-digit increases in first-half earnings as macroeconomic conditions improved, characterised by greater stability in inflation and foreign exchange (forex) rates in key markets, during the six months to June 30, 2025.
“The half-year results reflect the resilience, progress and momentum in our business. The group reported a pleasing set of results, driven by strong commercial execution, disciplined capital allocation and improved macroeconomic conditions. We are encouraged by the acceleration in our top-line and the recovery in our profitability and free cash flow generation,” said MTN Group president and CEO Ralph Mupita.
The group’s reported headline earnings per share (HEPS) increased 352% to 645c during the six months ended June 30, from a loss of 256c in the prior corresponding period in 2024.
Adjusted HEPS increased 76.1% to 657c during the six months to June 30, 2025, from 373c in the first half of the 2024 financial year.
Basic earnings per share increased by 231.8% to 539c, from a loss of 409c in the prior corresponding period last year.
Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda), before one-off items, increased 60.6% on a reported basis and 42.3% on a constant currency basis to R46.66-billion, with the group’s Ebitda margin expanding 10.7 percentage points on a reported basis to 42.7% and up 7.1 percentage points to 44.2% in constant currency.
This was underpinned by robust topline growth and continued progress in the company’s expense efficiency programme, which yielded savings of about R1.5-billion during the period under review, Mupita added.
South Africa’s Ebitda decreased 3.6% to R9.22-billion, while MTN Nigeria’s Ebitda surged 117.5%, on a constant currency basis, to R14.33-billion and MTN Ghana’s Ebitda increased 46% on a constant currency basis to R12.07-billion.
Overall, MTN achieved a 22.4% increase in service revenue growth to R105.11-billion, from R85.32-billion in the six months ended June 30, 2024, with data service revenue increasing 34.3% and fintech revenue increasing 24.9%.
Advanced services fintech revenue increased by 42% and increased its contribution to total Mobile Money (MoMo) revenue by 3.8 percentage points to 33.4%.
Data now accounts for 45.3% of total group service revenue, an increase from 40.9% in the first six months of 2024.
MTN’s larger operating clusters, MTN Nigeria and MTN Ghana, led the growth in service revenue, increasing, on a constant currency basis, 54.1% to R28.23-billion and 39.9% to R20.67-billion, respectively.
MTN South Africa, which continued to navigate competitive pressures in its prepaid segment, reported service revenue growth of 2.3% to R21.60-billion in the six months under review.
MTN South Africa accounts for 20.6% of the service revenue contribution to the group, while MTN Nigeria and MTN Ghana account for 26.9% and 19.7% respectively.
During the six months to June 30, 2025, total subscribers increased by 4.7% to 297.7-million, with active data subscribers and MoMo monthly active users up 10.3% to 164.4-million and 1.8% to 63.2-million, respectively.
Data traffic rose by 29.1% and fintech transaction volumes increased by 14.5%, highlighting the ongoing structural demand for MTN’s services.
“The improvement in macroeconomic conditions in our operating environment provides a solid foundation to drive our medium-term growth ambitions, as we continue to execute on our strategy,” said Mupita.
"In light of the strong momentum in our business, and based on current assumptions, we revise up our medium-term guidance framework for the group,” he continued.
MTN expects to increase capital expenditure to between R33-billion and R38-billion for the 2025 financial year, from the previously guided R30-billion to R35-billion, mainly reflecting forex rate impacts from MTN Ghana.
“Our investment case is underpinned by the structural demand for data and fintech services in our markets, and the strength of our overall portfolio.”
MTN Group service revenue growth has been revised from ‘mid-teens’ to ‘high-teens’, with MTN South Africa’s service revenue growth revised to ‘low- to mid-single digit’, from ‘mid-single digit’, and MTN Nigeria’s service revenue growth being revised to ‘at least low-20%’, from ‘at least 20%’.
Remaining unchanged is the group’s fintech service revenue growth of ‘high-20% to low-30%’, the holdco leverage of 1.5x or below and the adjusted return on equity improvement towards 25%.
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